Weekly review and free levels/setups for 7/21
With bulls driving futures to all-time highs (ATHs) for four consecutive weeks, Powell’s speech and earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) in focus this week
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Last week we again saw ATHs on NQ and ES futures. Here are key economic events this week. Overall US-EU tariff talks (Aug 1 deadline) and 60% chance of Fed rate cut by Sep add volatility. Strong data/earnings may drive gains; weak data or hawkish Fed could spark pullbacks.
Mon: US Leading Economic Index – Signals growth; strong data lifts cyclicals.
Tue: Fed Chair Powell speaks – Dovish tone boosts tech; hawkish pressures equities.
Wed: US Existing Home Sales – Strong data supports homebuilders; weak data signals slowdown.
Thu: US Manufacturing PMI, New Home Sales – PMI >50 lifts industrials; home sales impact housing stocks.
Fri: US Durable Goods Orders – Strong orders boost tech/industrials; weak orders weigh on them.
Earnings: Coca-Cola, GM, Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, AT&T – Tech/consumer earnings could move Nasdaq, S&P 500.
Trade reveiws from X posts from last week as usual we played both sides.
July 14: We shorted ES futures against 6376 in Globex, then went long against 6362, securing strong gains. We shorted the RTH open against 6392/6396 for 10+ handles, went long at 6396 targeting 6312, and shorted at 6312 at the close.
July 15: We flipped long against 6312 in Globex, capturing ~30 handles. We highlighted 6342 and 6312 as key levels to watch and traded both sides. We noted bears needed to break 6376 for further downside.
July 16: We shorted 6392/6396 from the RTH open, targeting a break of overnight lows, and shorted again against 6376 if retested. We took a short at 6296 and multiple shorts at 6376, nearly hitting 6236 before a bounce to 6376, where we went long. The market closed near 6300 after testing 6308/6312.
July 17: We advised going long until 6312/6316 failed, noting 6332 as potential resistance. Later, we confirmed new all-time highs as expected, with bulls holding above 6332. We suggested flipping short if 6332 broke.
July 18: On opex day, we flipped vs. 6332, took partial profits, and shorted 6332, targeting 6316 or 6302. We noted 6346 as bears’ last defense, observing bears weren’t aggressive enough.
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Econ for Week
Night session Trading Suggestions:
I suggest to not trade night session from 10 pm to 2 am chop. If action has to happen than it will happen before 10 pm or after 2 am EST. You can generally play short on top level provided for nightly range and long on lower level of nightly range after 2 am or 3 am. But get out of the way if it rips or drops thru levels and wait for new opportunity or flip. And of course never add to loser and better yet cut it and reset.
Remember: I never short above or long below my marker. I wait for it to pause before it or come back to it from rip/dip and pause before executing.
Never take position before Econ like CPI Or FOMC. After econ watch for levels where it stops and how it interacts to decide long or short.
Recommended stop: -2 and go to BE on +2. Some ppl who can't reenter shall chose -3.5/4.
Scale out: 2 lots at +6/8, 3rd at +10/16, 4th leave runner at BE
Big picture: > 5700 this remains bullish.
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Levels, & Possible Targets: 🔥🔥= Critical (These are now for September U Contract)
Long term view: As far as > 5700 tape remains in bulls’ control
Bull bear: 6332(Weekly bull bear level is 6316)
Above: 6332/36🔥🔥, 6356, 6376, 6396, 6400, 6426🔥
Below: 6316🔥, 6302, 6280🔥, 6264 , 6240, 6224, 6200, 6180, 6166🔥🔥
Trade ideas: Long > 6332 Flip otherwise. Better short is vs 6316 on break of 6312.
Note: Use my globex Pivot/opening setup as main directional guide and then other setups as guidance. Flip or go flat if setup reverses as I may not be in front of my screen all day, you should by now know how the process works at most you have 2/4 handle risk. Setup generally reverses on 1 minute close above/below 3/4 handles from marker. Again there is no sure shot as some time I might relax that or may go predictive. That’s general rule anyway. Also most of the time setups always gives opportunities to reenter some time even multiple times so never take trade too far away from setup markers